Opinion: Ala Pomelile
For the past few years, mainstream media—both here in New Zealand and abroad—have portrayed the rise of gender ideology, in particular transgenderism, as an inevitable, permanent cultural shift. However, emerging evidence suggests the “trend” is breaking. A recent analysis of the Cooperative Election Study (CES) by Professor Ryan Burge reveals that 2020 was not a “new normal,” but a peak that has since collapsed. The data is striking: transgender identification has fallen by more than half among US young adults in just four years.
According to Burge’s analysis of the Cooperative Election Study (CES data), the number of Americans identifying as transgender has plummeted in a remarkably short window. In 2020, 2.5% of U.S. adults identified as transgender. By 2024, that number crashed to just 1%. Among those born in the late 1990s, identification dropped from 7.5% to 2.3%—a loss of two-thirds of its previous volume. Perhaps most shocking is the shift among young women (ages 18–22). Identification in this group fell from 6.9% in 2020 to a staggering 0.3% in 2024
Whilst the most significant numerical drop occurred among the youngest adults (those born after 1995). However, the trend extends to people in their 30s and 40s.In many groups, the percentage of individuals identifying as transgender fell by more than half, and in some cases (like the 1995–1999 cohort), it dropped by two-thirds. The data suggest this is not a phenomenon exclusive to “Gen Z” or the very young, but rather a broader shift that appears even among those born as early as the 1970s.
Recent developments over the past few months across various datasets all point to this rapid decline. From Burge’s analysis, it seems that the decline is due to three fundamental truths (also acted as a protective factor) that were sidelined during the height of what many experts describe as a “social contagion”:
- Biology is reality, not a social construct: The data demonstrate the enduring strength of the male/female binary. Young women, in particular, are abandoning these labels in droves, with identification dropping to a near-zero 0.3%. This proves that gender is not a fluid spectrum of our own making, but a biological reality. We are witnessing a “reversion to the mean”—a growing recognition that the human body is not a canvas for ideological experimentation, but a gift to be accepted as it is.
- Leadership and language matter: One of the most striking findings is the impact of clear boundaries. When leaders refuse to use deceptive language and instead advocate for the protection of women’s sports, private spaces, and the innocence of children, they create a “shield of reality.” This offers a vital lesson for New Zealand’s own leadership: words and biological realities matter. Clarity protects the vulnerable from passing social trends.
- The protective power of Faith and Family: The data highlights a significant religious divide. While the non-religious are more likely to be caught in the web of gender ideology, religious youth have shown far greater immunity. When young people are anchored in a faith tradition and a community that provides a coherent sense of identity and purpose, they don’t need to search for it in radical academic theories.
This “snap back” to reality suggests that when the true costs of gender ideology are exposed, the ideological house of cards begins to fold. Russian writer Alexander Solzhenitsyn once wrote that lies are like parasites: they can only survive when attached to a person. When we refuse to use false pronouns, when we protect women’s spaces, and when we insist on the biological reality of male and female, the ideological “contagion” loses its power. True compassion doesn’t mean affirming confusion that leads to permanent medical issues and regret; instead, it involves speaking the truth with love and grace. This also includes actively opposing and resisting the cultural narratives that seek to normalise gender ideology.
We must also resist the urge to respond with “I told you so” smugness. Instead, we should see this shift as a call to action. Our role is to be the steady voice of reason and wisdom, helping to guide a confused generation to rediscover the beauty and value of embracing their identity as God created them, male and female.